The Strait of Hormuz Crisis:

Let’s cut to it: the Strait of Hormuz is basically shut down. As of March 2026, the number of ships passing through has dropped by around 95% — from about 130 a day to just 6. If you work in supply chain and you haven’t started war-gaming this yet, now’s the time.

This isn’t a blip. The head of the International Energy Agency called it the largest energy supply disruption in history. Here’s what that means in practice for your operations.

⚡ Quick stat: Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz: ~130/day in Feb 2026, down to just 6 in March. That’s a 95% drop. For context, the Red Sea crisis in 2023-24 — which everyone scrambled to manage — was far easier to work around.

So why does this chokepoint matter so much?

On a normal day, the Strait of Hormuz carries about a quarter of all seaborne oil in the world, plus huge volumes of LNG, fertilizers, aluminum, and chemicals. Think of it as the main highway for Gulf energy exports — and right now, that highway is closed.

The big difference from the Red Sea situation? With the Red Sea, ships could take the long way around the Cape of Good Hope. With the Strait of Hormuz, there’s no detour. If your supply chain runs through the Gulf, you’re stuck.

What this is actually hitting

Fuel and freight costs are up — a lot

Brent crude has pushed past $90/barrel. That flows straight into freight rates, bunker fuel surcharges, and just about every input cost you can think of. War risk insurance premiums have also jumped, which adds another layer of cost to anything moving through the region. If your carrier contracts have variable oil price clauses, now’s a good time to pull those up.

Chemicals and plastics feedstocks are getting squeezed

About a third of the world’s seaborne methanol moves through the Strait — and methanol goes into resins, coatings, plastics, you name it. China, the world’s biggest methanol buyer, is already watching inventories slide toward warning levels. MEG (monoethylene glycol), which goes into polyester and packaging, is another one to watch — about 6.5 million tonnes a year is at risk.

Aluminum supply is tightening

The Middle East accounts for around 21% of global unwrought aluminum imports. With the Strait blocked, regional smelters can’t get the alumina they need to keep producing. If you’re sourcing aluminum for auto parts, packaging, aerospace, or construction — expect tighter availability and higher prices.

Air cargo is also caught in the crossfire

It’s not just ships. Regional airspace closures are hitting about 20% of worldwide air cargo capacity. Qatar and UAE carriers — the two biggest air cargo operators on the planet — are right in the middle of it. Add a global spike in jet fuel costs and you’ve got rising rates across every time-sensitive supply chain: pharma, electronics, perishables.

📊 The bigger picture: UNCTAD is projecting global trade growth to slow from 4.7% in 2025 to just 1.5–2.5% in 2026. Energy is the main driver. That’s a significant pullback — and it hits demand in your key markets too.

The ripple effects beyond the obvious

Beyond the direct supply chain hits, a few other things are worth keeping an eye on:

Inflation: Energy costs are feeding through every part of the supply chain. Producing and shipping goods is getting more expensive across the board.
Emerging market wobbles: Investors are pulling back from developing economies, currencies are weakening, borrowing costs are rising — which shrinks your demand pool in those markets.
Fertilizer and ag supply: The Gulf produces a big chunk of the world’s sulfur and sulfuric acid, which are critical for fertilizers and mineral extraction. Agricultural supply chains could feel this down the line.
EV battery materials: Petroleum coke — a refining byproduct — is the main feedstock for synthetic graphite in EV batteries. As refineries chase higher-value outputs, graphite supply could tighten more than other battery materials.

What to do right now

What to do	Why it matters
Map your Hormuz exposure	Figure out which of your tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers are sourcing from Gulf states. Flag anything reliant on oil, LNG, MEG, methanol, aluminum, or sulfur.
Check your fuel surcharge clauses	Carrier contracts usually have variable fuel surcharges built in. Know what you’re exposed to and look for renegotiation windows.
Start qualifying backup suppliers	Alternative supplier qualification takes 3–12 months. Don’t wait until you’re in crisis mode — start the conversations now.
Bump up safety stock on vulnerable SKUs	For anything coming from the region or moving by air freight, consider raising your safety stock levels to buy yourself buffer time.
Review your maritime insurance	War risk premiums are climbing fast. Make sure your coverage reflects current conditions for any active shipments in or near the Persian Gulf.
Loop in your finance team	Currency weakness in key emerging markets can hit both your demand signals and your suppliers’ financial stability. Worth staying aligned.

The bottom line

The big shipping names — Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd — are already scrambling to find workarounds. But unlike the Red Sea, there’s no obvious detour for the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t a short-term blip that self-corrects in a few weeks. Treat it as a structural disruption to global trade and build your response accordingly.

The supply chains that hold up best through this will be the ones that already invested in resilience: diversified sourcing, buffer stock, strong supplier relationships, and someone actually watching the geopolitical horizon. If that’s not you yet — there’s still time to catch up, but not much.

📌 Bottom line: This is the largest energy supply shock in recorded history. Don’t plan for a quick resolution. Plan for a sustained disruption and build your buffers now.